Food Price Outlook 2022


The official USDA website is a wealth of information if you’re willing to take the time to navigate it.  From time to time, we’ll publish pertinent information from this website that we feel could be useful to you and those in the food industry.  One that is of particular interest is the Food Price Outlook, 2022 which is updated monthly.

“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food is a component of the all-items CPI. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative market basket of consumer goods and services. While the all-items CPI measures the price changes for all consumer goods and services, including food, the CPI for food measures the changes in the retail prices of food items only.”

This current report summarizes the April 2022 forecasts, which incorporate the March 2022 CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers. The Producer Price Index resembles the CPI in that it reflects price changes over time, however instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output.   Three major PPI commodity groups of interest to food markets are unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, processed foods and feeds and finished consumer goods.

Information below has been extracted from this summary provided by the USDA Economic Research Service.

Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)

This all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased by 1.3 percent from February 2022 to March 2022 before seasonal adjustment, up 8.5 percent from March 2021.  The CPI for all food increased 1.0 percent from February 2022 to March 2022 and the food prices were 8.8 percent higher than in March 2021.

The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home.

  • The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchase) CPI increased 0.3 percent in March 2022 and was 6.9 percent higher than March 2021
  • The food-at-home (grocery or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 1.5 percent from February 2022 to March 2022 and was 10.0 percent higher than March 2021.

Food price increases are expected to be above the increases observed in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, food-at-home prices are predicted to increase between 5.0 and 6.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent.  Price increases for food away from home are expected to exceed historical averages and the inflation rate of 2021.

CPI Forecast Changes This Month

The large increases in all-food and food-at-home prices in March followed similarly large changes in January and February 2022.  These price increases were driven by increases for many products. The impact of the conflict in the Ukraine and the recent increases in the interest rates by the Federal Reserve are expected to put upward and downward pressure on food prices respectively. All food prices are now predicted to increase between 5.0 and 6.0 percent.

Following large price increases in January-March 2022, forecast ranges for fats and oils, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, cereal and bakery products and other foods have been adjusted upward.  In 2022 compared with 2021 fresh fruit prices are predicted to increase 6.0 – 7.0 percent, fresh vegetable prices between 4.0 and 5.0 percent, and processed fruits and vegetables between 5.5 and 6.5 percent. 

Beef, Veal prices are now predicted to increase 6.0 and 7.0 percent; pork prices are predicted to increase between 4.0 and 5.0 percent and other meat prices are predicted to increase between 4.5 and 4.5 percent.  The aggregate categories of meats, poultry and fish are predicted to increase between 4.5 and 6.5 percent in 2022.

Poultry prices are predicted to increase between 7.5 and 8 percent and egg prices are predicted to increase between 6.0 and 7.0 percent.  Dairy prices are predicted to increase between 6.0 and 7.0 percent this year.

PPI (Producer Price Index) Forecast Changes This Month

The PPIs (measures of changes in farm and wholesale prices) are typically far more volatile than the CPIs.  Price volatility increases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector.  Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI.  The PPI is a useful tool for understand what soon may happen to the CPI.

The PPI forecast ranges for wholesale poultry, farm-level milk, wholesale dairy, farm-level soybeans, wholesale fats and oils, farm-level vegetables, farm-level wheat, and wholesale wheat flour were revised upward this month.  Forecast ranges for wholesale beef were revised downward.  Note:  Due to increased drought, wholesale beef prices decreased by 3.6 percent in March.  However, wholesale beef prices are now predicted to increase between 2.0 and 5.0 percent this month.

Farm-level vegetable prices increased by 42.2 percent in March 2022 and reached 81.5 percent above the prices observed in March 2021. Farm-level vegetable prices are predicted to increase between 8.0 and 11.0 percent in 2022.

Farm-level milk prices are now predicted to increase between 2.0 and 5.0 percent in 2022 and wholesale dairy prices are predicted to increase between 10.0 and 13.0 percent.

Farm-level soybean prices are predicted to increase between 12.0 and 15.0 percent in 2022.  Wholesale fats and oils prices are predicted to increase between 40.0 and 43.0 percent.

Farm-level wheat prices are now predicted to increase between 40.0 and 43.0 percent and wholesale wheat flour prices are predicted to increase between 21.0 and 24.0 percent in 2022.

To learn more, please visit the USDA website listed below.


  1. USDA Food Price Outlook, 2022,
  2. USDA Summary Findings,

米国農務省(USDA)の公式ウェブサイトを時間をかけて閲覧してみると、実に多くの情報が見つかります。皆さんや食品業界関係者にとって関連性の高そうな情報をこのサイトで見つけた場合は、私たちのニュースレターでも時おり紹介していきます。特に私たちが関心を寄せている情報のひとつが、毎月更新されている「Food Price Outlook, 2022(2022年食品価格展望)」です。


現行のレポートでは、2022年3月のCPIと生産者物価指数(PPIの数値に基づく2022年4月時点での予測を概要所見にまとめています。PPIは、価格の推移を反映するという点ではCPIに似ていますが、小売価格ではなく、国内の生産者の産品に対して支払われている平均価格を測定します。食品市場にとって関連性の高いPPIの3大商品グループは、「unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs(加工前食糧および食糧)」、「processed foods and feeds(加工後食品および飼料)」、「finished consumer goods(消費向け完成品)」です。





  • 家庭以外で消費する食品(レストランの購入)のCPIは、2022年3月に前月比3%増、前年同月比では6.9%増でした。
  • 家庭で消費する食品(食料品店やスーパーの購入)のCPIは、2022年3月に前月比5%増、前年同月比では10.0%増でした。















  1. USDA Food Price Outlook, 2022(米国農務省・2022年食品価格展望)、
  2. USDA Summary Findings(米国農務省・概要所見)、

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