
The 2024 season has been a mixed bag for the U.S. potato industry, marked by reduced production, regional yield disparities, and fluctuating prices. While challenges loom large, key insights from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) December Vegetable Outlook highlight areas of resilience and opportunity within this crucial agricultural sector.
Production Trends
National potato production for 2024 is forecasted at 417.8 million hundredweight (cwt)—a notable 5% decline from the previous year. Despite this dip, the average yield of 453 cwt per acre ranks as the third highest since 2019, demonstrating the industry’s ability to maintain productivity amid challenges.
However, regional variability has played a significant role:
• High-Yield States: Washington, Oregon, Michigan, and Maine achieved record-high yields, showcasing the impact of favorable growing conditions and robust agricultural practices.
• Low-Yield States: Wisconsin and Florida faced significant setbacks, with Wisconsin reporting its lowest yield (380 cwt per acre) since 2002 due to excessive spring rains.
State-Level Highlights
Two giants, Idaho and Washington, continue to lead U.S. potato production, contributing a combined 56% of the national crop. However, some smaller states are showing notable growth:
- Michigan and Maine: These states increased their planted acreage by 2% year-over-year, a testament to their resilience in challenging conditions.
• Colorado: While the state reduced its planted area by 2%, increased yields helped offset the decline, demonstrating the value of efficiency in modern farming practices.
Market and Pricing Dynamics
The potato market experienced significant shifts in pricing during the 2023/24 season:
• The average price fell 5% year-over-year to $12.3 per cwt.
• Fresh Market Struggles: Fresh potato prices dropped by a staggering 29%, putting pressure on growers reliant on this segment.
• Processing Stability: In contrast, processing prices increased 2% year-over-year, underlining the steady demand for processed potato products in the foodservice and frozen sectors.
Frozen Potato Products: A Key Growth Area
The frozen potato market, particularly for French fries, has seen sustained demand, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) for frozen potato production increasing 28% in 2024 compared to two years ago. This trend reflects not only inflationary pressures but also growing consumer preference for convenient, ready-to-cook products.
However, a trade imbalance continues to challenge the sector. While the U.S. exported 900,000 metric tons of frozen fries in the 12 months leading to October 2024, it imported 1.5 million metric tons, primarily from Canada (82%).
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Opportunities and Outlook
While overall production has declined, the U.S. potato industry retains areas of strength:
• Processing Growth: The stable demand and pricing for processing potatoes offer a reliable avenue for growth, especially as the frozen segment continues to expand.
• Resilient States: States like Michigan and Maine demonstrate that targeted investments and increased acreage can mitigate broader production challenges.
• Frozen Potato Potential: The ongoing demand for frozen products underscores the importance of investing in processing capacity to reduce dependency on imports.
What do you think about the current state of the U.S. potato market? Could greater focus on processing and frozen potato products balance out the challenges in fresh market pricing?
For almost 50 years, Noon International has built a reputation as a reliable supplier of frozen potatoes, fruits, and other vegetables. Backed by a well-established global network of partner farms and suppliers, we offer a wide range of frozen potato cuts designed to meet diverse business requirements. If your business is in need of frozen potatoes, we’d be happy to discuss how we can support your needs.
Click HERE to Learn More About Our Premium Frozen Potatoes
The Noon International Team
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+1 (206) 283-8400
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