India
- Weather Impact: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-average temperatures in May and June, with significant rainfall deficits in the east, northeast (-30%), and southern (-68%) regions during the pre-monsoon season.
- Alphonso Mango:
- Quality and Production: Short season with high-quality but low-volume fruit.
- Prices: Western Alphonso (Gujarat, Maharashtra) prices are $1,600-$1,700/MT FOB, up from May. Southern variety prices remain at $1,400-$1,500/MT FOB.
- Volume: Expected decrease of 15-20%, with more going to the fresh market.
- Totapuri Mango:
- Crop Shortfall: Reduction between 25-40% depending on location. High temperatures and inadequate rainfall impacted yields.
- Prices: Totapuri Mango Puree (TMP) prices increased to $900-$1,000/MT FOB, and Totapuri Mango Concentrate (TMC) to $1,500-$1,600/MT FOB, a 50% rise from May.
- Market Adjustments: Domestic demand decreased; juice packers adapting to high prices by reducing juice content and allowing more variety in raw materials.
- Kesar Mango: Prices are high, with processors needing to sell at $1,850-$1,950/MT FOB to be viable.
- Neelam Mango: Prices are higher than Kesar, unlikely to impact the market significantly this season.
- Export Statistics:
- Volumes: India exported 195,044 MT of fruit purees in the first 11 months of 2023, up 10% y/y.
- Key Markets: Increases to Saudi Arabia (+13%) and the US (+29%), while exports to the Netherlands decreased by 14%.
- Freight Costs: High, ranging from $2,500 to $2,800 per 20 ft. container. Expected increases in freight rates from China to Europe.
South America
- Peru:
- Impact of El Niño: Significant crop reduction due to high temperatures, heavy rains, and poor flowering.
- Future Outlook: Cooler weather since April indicates a positive outlook for the 2024/2025 season, though growers remain cautious.
- Brazil:
- Quality Issues: Higher-than-average rainfall and earlier high temperatures have led to lower quality and fungal diseases.
Mexico
- Price Trends: Single strength mango puree prices decreased to $850-$950/MT CFR Europe, down from $950-$1,050/MT in May. Concentrate prices remain stable at $1,250-$1,350/MT CFR Europe.
- Harvest and Production:
- Southern Mexico: Crop for industry was 50% of the 2023 level.
- Central and Western Mexico: Harvest expected to be 70% of the 2023 levels due to drought conditions and smaller fruit size.
- Market Outlook: Anticipated increase in Mexican mango prices following Indian market trends.
Outlook
- The market is expected to remain tight with lower output and higher prices for Indian Totapuri mango puree. Buyers are advised to secure products soon due to the short Alphonso season and potential price increases influenced by Mexican production trends.
Noon International LLC Team
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+1 (206) 283-8400
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